Donald Trump Pulled Off a Triumphant Victory
Donald Trump’s triumphant victory in the US presidential elections is the greatest political upset ever. Just days ago, US election polls were arguing over just how certain they were about a Hillary Clinton victory, but almost every pollster and analyst has egg on their face tonight.
The New York Times’ Upshot had Hillary Clinton on an 85 per cent chance of victory. The Huffington Post put Clinton on a 98.3 per cent chance of winning, Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight website had Clinton at a 66.9 per cent chance and the Princeton Election Consortium’s probability of a Hillary win was a ballsy 99 per cent.
This is how the polls were weighted. Polling analysts weight the polls. Is it possible that the elite, Washington insiders who conduct polling would alter their models to fit their expectation that a Trump victory is but impossible?
Donald Trump’s victory dealt a devastating blow to the credibility of the nation’s leading pollsters, calling into question their mathematical models, assumptions and survey methods.
“Most of the press and folks in DC were science deniers when it came to this election,” said veteran GOP operative Curt Anderson, an adviser to a pro-Trump super PAC. “Even in the face of polls that showed it very close, they all said that Trump had almost no chance. It was because they couldn’t imagine it happening.”
He added that “They are in a bubble, and that bubble has just been burst.”